The Pittsburgh Pirates' 9th inning fallback options
Dennis Santana is currently projected to be the Pittsburgh Pirates closer going into 2026. While Santana had an outstanding 2.18 ERA last season, he saw his strikeout plummet from 29.1% in 2024 with the Bucs to 22.2% in 2025, and his exit velocity and barrel rate go from 84.5 MPH and 1.9% in ‘24 to 89 MPH and 10.5% reach in 2025. While Santana could still be a shutdown late-inning arm in 2026, the drop in peripherals is definitely notable. Another significant drop will affect his bottom line. However, the Pirates will have multiple fallback options if something goes awry.
Justin Lawrence
Justin Lawrence was a waiver claim by the Pirates at the very start of Spring Training in 2025. His first four years of his MLB career were spent with the Colorado Rockies, and his tenure there was ‘rocky’ to say the least (pun intended). In 194 innings, he owned a 5.43 ERA, struggled to limit walks with a 12.5% free pass percentage, and only had a 21.3% strikeout rate. Surprisingly, he didn’t allow many home runs, with a 0.79 HR/9 ratio.
Lawrence unfortunately missed most of the 2025 season with elbow troubles that kept him out from late April until mid September. He only pitched 17.2 innings in 2025, but when the right-hander was taking the mound, he was dominant. He allowed just a single earned run, while getting 23 batters to strikeout, and induced a whiff rate of 29.5%. His 28.6% chase rate would have been a career-best mark, compared to his previous career-high, 24.8% rate set in 2023.
While it was a small sample size, there are many reasons to believe in him going forward. Lawrence had a 107 Stuff+ this year. That’s because he has decent velocity, as his sinker averaged out around 95 MPH, and he throws from a very low arm angle, which averaged out at -1 degrees in 2025. His sweeper is hard to hit, as it induced a 40% whiff rate this season. The most obvious thing that will help him is getting out of Coors Field. The high altitude doesn’t just make flyballs travel further, but can affect pitch movement greatly. Having an environment where he doesn't have to constantly try and adjust because his pitches move differently depending if he is playing at home or away will give him a better feel for his pitch mix.
Gregory Soto
The Pirates’ most recent free agent addition has experience as a closer, and will likely be an option if Santana falters in 2026. Gregory Soto signed a one-year, $7.75 million deal with the Pirates earlier this winter. The left-hander may have had a 4.53 ERA between 2023 and 2024, and a 4.15 mark in 2025, but he has plenty of qualities that could make him better in 2026, and be a high-leverage arm.
Soto got plenty of swings and misses and strikeouts. He was in the 82nd percentile of whiff rate at 29.9%, and put up a 25.1% K%. He also got opposing batters to chase outside the zone frequently, with a 31.5% chase rate. It was the first time Soto was above the 80th percentile of both whiff and chase percentage. That career-high chase rate also helped him put up a career-low 8.6% BB%. He was also in the 97th percentile of barrel rate at 4%.
In terms of stuff, Soto throws about as hard as you can ask for. His average four-seam fastball velocity of 97.3 MPH was the second best of any qualified left-handed reliever. He was also top ten in sinker velocity among all lefty pitchers at 96.9 MPH. Overall, he had an elite 117 Stuff+, which was, again, one of the best of any lefty reliever in 2025. Soto previously made back-to-back All-Star games in 2021 and 2022 as the Detroit Tigers’ closer, and he has the most experience in the ninth inning role currently on the Pirates’ roster.
Carmen Mlodzinski
Carmen Mlodzinski isn’t an obvious choice to take over a closer role. He has only ever logged a single save, that being back in 2023. The right-hander also served as a starter/long relief reliever in 2025. However, Mlodzinski is just as good as anyone when working out of the bullpen, and has stuff that would work fine in a high-leverage role.
The Bucs attempted to make Mlodzinski a starting pitcher at the beginning of the year. However, after that didn’t work out, they moved him back to the bullpen, with his remaining three appearances as a ‘starter’ being used more like an opener. His last 59.1 innings of the year saw him put up a 2.12 ERA, 2.65 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP.
Mlodzinski had both a healthy 25.5% K% and 6.3% walk rate. His 90.3 MPH exit velocity may not inspire much confidence, but his 4.4% barrel rate and 0.46 HR/9 ratio should. The right-hander had an impressive 107 Stuff+ after he transitioned back into more of a relief role. Among Pirates pitchers who threw at least 30 innings after the start of June, only top prospect Bubba Chandler had a better Stuff+.
