Brandon Lowe finally provides some protection for the Pittsburgh Pirates’ most feared hitter
The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired Brandon Lowe from the Tampa Bay Rays, adding a legitimate power threat to their line-up. Not only does he bring pop to a line-up who was only the third non-COVID season team to hit fewer than 120 home runs in one year, but Lowe also brings line-up protection. He brings some support for arguably the Pirates’ most feared hitter, Oneil Cruz.
Now Cruz’s 2025 numbers may not scare a Major League pitcher. He only hit .200/.298/.378 with a .295 wOBA, and 86 wRC+ over 544 plate appearances. While he upped his walk rate to 11.8% and lowered his chase rate to 28.1%, compared to 8.5% and 31.7% in 2024, respectively, he also saw his already poor 30.2% K% in ‘24 to 32.5% in ‘25. However, when you look at how pitchers threw to Cruz, you can see why he struggled.
Pitchers did not like giving Cruz anything to hit. 55.3% of the pitches Cruz saw were outside of the strikezone. There were 308 batters who saw at least 1000 pitches in 2025, and Cruz had the 2nd highest rate of out of zone pitches. The only batter ahead of him was two-time MVP, Bryce Harper at 57%. Pitchers were more willing to throw in the zone to 2025 MVP winners Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, both at 52.5% out of zone pitch rate, along with AL MVP finalist and 60 home run hitter Cal Raleigh, at 53.9%, than they were to Cruz.
It’s pretty obvious why opposing pitchers would rather work around Cruz than to give him something he could get a hold of. Only two of the ten Pirates batters with 300+ plate appearances had a wRC+ over 100; Spencer Horwitz (118) and Joey Bart (101). We know the sort of damage Cruz can do when he makes contact. His 95.8 MPH exit velocity was in the 100th percentile of batters in 2025, and his 17.9% barrel rate was in the 97th percentile.
At the end of May, Cruz owned a 125 wRC+ and was only swinging outside the zone 25.6% of the time. But after that, he had a paltry 59 wRC+ and 29.1% out of zone swing rate. Cruz didn’t suddenly start seeing a lot more of a certain pitch either. The only noteworthy change he saw in the types of pitches he was seeing was fastballs, which went from 19.7% in April and May, to 23% the rest of the year, and fastballs were pitches he had a 70.8% hard hit rate and .377 xwOBA on.
However, pitchers won’t have that luxury of moving onto a below average hitter now with Brandon Lowe, who will likely bat behind Cruz. Last year, Lowe batted .256/.307/.477 with a 114 wRC+, and 31 homers over 553 trips to the plate. Since his 2019 rookie season, Lowe has a 124 wRC+, with the only 2B’s with a better mark being Ketel Marte (134) and Jose Altuve (132). Marcus Semien (178) and Altuve (158) are the only 2B’s since ‘19 with more long balls than Lowe does. His .235 isolated slugging percentage in that time is the best at his position.
Overall, having Lowe in the line-up should help Cruz from pressing at the dish. It will make pitchers more weary of pitching around the talented center fielder, and hopefully, will lead to more consistent performance at the plate in 2026. If Cruz can hit anything like he did in 2024, or even better, the Pirates’ line-up will be a whole lot better, and may even be able to partially thank Lowe for helping Cruz out.
