The Pittsburgh Pirates’ rotation is largely set. Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Bubba Chandler, and Braxton Ashcraft are safe bets to be the Bucs’ first four starters. Top prospect Hunter Barco may get an opportunity to snag the last rotation spot, unless the Pirates bring in another starter via free agency. There is even more talent coming through the pipeline, as the Pirates added both Wilber Dotel and Antwone Kelly to the 40-man roster this offseason, and Seth Hernandez is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.
With all that pitching talent, it’s easy for right-hander Jared Jones to be buried. However, he is the biggest X-factor the Pirates have going into 2026. During Jones’ 2024 rookie season, he tallied 121.1 innings while posting a respectable 4.14 ERA, 4.00 FIP, and 1.19 WHIP. Jones got a healthy amount of K’s, with a 26.2% K%, and was in the 84th percentile of whiff rate at 30.2%. He was also good at limiting free passes, with a 7.7% BB%, and 69th percentile 30.4% chase rate. Home runs gave Jones trouble, however, with a 1.33 HR/9 ratio, and a barrel percentage of just 9.8%. Jones showed off elite stuff on the mound, averaging out at 97.3 MPH with his four-seam fastball, and having the 4th best Stuff+ of rookie pitchers who threw 100+ innings in 2024 at 104. ERA estimators also liked his work, with a 3.78 xFIP and 3.72 SIERA.
After such a promising rookie year, Jones was set to be a key member of the Pirates’ rotation in 2025. However, his season came to a screeching halt in Spring Training when he began suffering from elbow inflammation. While he was originally set to miss about 6-8 weeks, a more concerning UCL sprain, leading to elbow surgery in May, put his campaign on ice before it even began.
Luckily for Jones though, he was able to dodge Tommy John surgery. The right-hander underwent internal brace surgery, which has a shorter recovery time. For reference, Atlanta Braves flamethrower Spencer Strider underwent the same procedure on April 13, 2024. His first start of 2025 was on April 16, with his only other IL placement in ‘25 being an unrelated hamstring injury. That means that Jones could be back in action before June with no setbacks.
Even if the Pirates’ rotation is healthy and thriving when Jones returns, having him back is a massive boost to the depth chart. For one, the Pirates can give starters an extra day of rest. This is important for Braxton Ashcraft, who pitched more than 100 innings for the first time in a season in 2025 since getting drafted in 2018. Bubba Chandler also surpassed the 120 inning benchmark for the first time in his career during ‘25.
If cracking the rotation isn’t an option, he could work out of the bullpen as a long reliever. If the rest of the rotation is performing well, the Pirates don’t necessarily need Jones taking the ball every four or five days. He could still make occasional spot starts to give other pitchers extra rest, but if a fifth starter isn’t needed, he profiles as a strong swingman who can gradually build his workload back up.
Getting Jared Jones back on the bump could be a season-changing addition. That's another pitcher the Pirates can slot into the rotation if needed, coming back around the start of Summer, further bolstering their already deep pitching staff. Regardless of whether he comes back as a starter or as a swingman, he's the biggest X-factor the Pirates have going into 2026, given his injury history and what we know he's capable of.
